Should Chinese players take more Mid-Range Jump Shots?
The Mid-range debate is a rather old debate for basketball analysts around the world especially in the NBA. Most teams have gone away from taking mid-range jumps shots and are encouraging the more valuable 3-point shoot because simple math will tell you that a long mid-range jump shot inside the 3-point line is the worst shot in basketball. This shift and change in shot selection is very drastic in the NBA, 35% of all shot attempts in the NBA this season were 3-pointers, a number that has increased dramatically each and every year, which was under 20% about 20 years ago. 20 years ago in the NBA, over 35% of all shots were mid range jumpers while it is around 20% now.
In this article our goal is to see how analytics in Basketball and trends the NBA has set in terms of style of play and shot selection has affected Chinese basketball.
Looking at the 2019-20 CBA season we have separated shots into three categories, At Rim, Mid Range and Behind 3 point line. It can be clearly seen that the most efficient shot is at the rim where there where 33986 attempted and 20237 made which is 60% resulting in 1.19 PPP. It should be noted that this is not accounting for fouls which actually make shots at the rim even more valuable. There were 26479 shot attempted behind the 3 point line and 9278 made which is 35% resulting in 1.05 PPP because of the extra point a 3-point shot is worth. Two teams Shandong and Fujian actually shot a higher percentage from beyond the 3-point line than from midrange. Most importantly we now look at the midrange shot, a total of 15555 shots were attempted and 5967 made, which is 38% and only 0.77 PPP making it by far the worst location to shoot the ball. Therefore we can see that the same thing that happens in the NBA and other leagues around the world also applies to the CBA, the midrange shot is by far the worst shot in basketball. To some fans it may sound surprising that only 38% of all mid range shots in the CBA are made, but comparing this to the NBA we see similar numbers as only 41% of mid range shots are made. One thing we must mention about the NBA is that team defenses have shifted towards allowing opponents to shoot open midrange jump shots, and combing the fact that the NBA has the best players in the world, the fact that the NBA is only 3% better than the CBA is very reasonable. We see that finishing at the rim is actually better in the CBA than NBA, this is not because the CBA has better finishers, but actually the fact that the CBA lacks rim protection, and without adequate rim protection anyone can make a open layup or dunk. 3-point shooting is very similar between the NBA and CBA as the NBA 3-point line is further out which increases the difficulty, as well as elite close out defenders and therefore we can obviously conclude that the NBA has better 3-point shooters. Overall we see that the CBA only takes 20% of all shots from midrange which is actually lower than the NBA last season which was at 21%. This shows that the CBA has naturally caught up the world standards. We could argue that coaches and players are getting smarter or that this is just an organic result of the leagues lack of rim protection as we see a larger number of shots at the rim than the NBA.
Further Discussion
Although it is positive to see Chinese basketball going away from the midrange shot and taking more threes and attacking the rim, we do need to consider the lack of defense in the CBA. The CBA is widely seen as an offensive league where a lack of athleticism, quickness and length which is often required for good defense is greatly lacking resulting in easy blow by drives and lack of rim protectors easy finishes at the rim. From our research we have found few teams to have rules that encourage more 3 point shots over midrange shots and believe that this result is not because teams are trying to do this intentionally, but just an organic result of playing to a teams strength and taking advantage of bad defense. The NBA also has a defensive 3-second rule, increasing the difficulty to protect the rim, but because of how athletically talented the league has become they still do a much better job than our players in the CBA. This even further increases the argument of how important rim protection is (add link) as it not only forces misses at the rim but also results in opponents taking more mid range jump shots.
The only situation where midrange jump shots are good shots are late in the shot clock, as the later you go into the shot clock the worse the offensive efficiency will be, with 24 second violation being the worst result as it is a turnover. There are times an open mid-range jump shot is a decent shot for some players, but for most it isn’t.
Next let’s take a closer look at individual players in the CBA who have taken more than 100 mid range attempts during the 2019-20 season. We can clearly make the same conclusion that even the players who take the most Midrange jump shots and are considered the best midrange shooters are not as good as we think, as not one players midrange shot is nearly as efficient as at the rim and the major of players who can shoot 3s are also much more efficient.
The best midrange shooter in the CBA is Hu Jinqiu, this is widely because he only takes open midrange jump shots and mostly in catch and shoot situations. Of course he is an adequate mid range shooter but there are better shooters in China who shoot far worse percentages because of the degree of difficulty of the shots they take.
Looking at the best player in China Yi Jianlian we see that he is an adequate midrange shooter but compared to his shots at the rim or from behind the 3 point line it is a far less inefficient shot. As he only shoots 1% higher from Mid-Range (41%) compared to from behind the 3-point line (40%), but because the 3-point shot isn’t worth an extra point the PPP is drastically higher at 1.19 compared to 0.81 for the midrange jump shot. In his case he should be taking a lot more 3-point shots instead of midrange jump shots, which is also why we see bigs in the NBA all taking 3s now instead of mid-range jump shots, because it is a much more efficient shot and gives your team a better chance to win games.
We clearly see that the best midrange shooting percentages actually come from bigs, who don’t dribble the ball and mostly only shoot on catch and shoot scenarios. Zhou Qi would be an exception as he was not a good overall shooter from anywhere and should probably stick to finishing at the rim where he makes 70% of shots compared to only 33% from midrange and 31% from 3.
Widely considered a good shooter by many, Fang Shuo is actually a very inefficient player because of his poor shot selection and taking a large amount of midrange shots off the dribble often off balance, only making 34% of them, actually lower than his 36% three point shooting. We would strongly suggest Fang Shuo to take many more 3 point shots instead of pulling up from midrange, as he would help his team a lot more in terms of winning games. His lack of efficiency is also why he is not ranked in our top50 players in the CBA.
Sun Yue was the worst midrange shooter in China that took over 100 attempts shooting a horrific 25%.
Because there is no data available from the 90s in the CBA we have gathered the oldest shooting data available from the NBA which was the 1996-97 season and took the star players of that time to compare to today’s NBA stars. We can clearly see that players now take far less midrange jumpshots and a lot more 3-pointers than in the last. The offensive efficiency is far higher because of it. The GOAT Micheal Jordan actually took 71% of his shots from midrange and made 49% of them often including fade-away and high difficulty shots. It must bad noted that there was no defensive three second rule yet (which was introduced during the 2001-02 season) and finishing at the rim was much more difficult than it is now therefore players ore often settling for the mid range shot. And even Jordan, the master in the mid-range game was actually more efficient from 3-point and at the rim.
The NBA has grown into the data analytics era of today and teams like the Houston Rockets took it to an extreme as the team only takes 10% of its shots from midrange and star player James Harden only 5%. This is obviously driven by former GM Daryl Morey who also traded Clint Capela to form a small ball lineup. We will see new trends with new rule changes and teams proving to have success playing a certain way, but as of right now the midrange jump shot is the worst shot in basketball and this holds true in the NBA as well as the CBA. We will further explore if this holds true in different levels in China such as the CUBA , CHBL or even wildball tournaments in the future, but we hope that we have convinced our fans that at least at the CBA level most players should be discouraged from taking midrange jump shots, but instead looking to get a better shot for himself or a teammate.
In conclusion, although there are players who are capable of making mid-range jump shots it is clearly by far the worst efficient shot location in the game of basketball. Especially in the CBA where defense is relatively bad and there is a lack of rim protection, coaches and players should prioritize attacking the rim or looking for open 3 point shooters instead.
中国球员应该在进攻端更多的选择中投吗？
世界篮球圈关于中投的辩论已经不是什么新鲜话题了，之前在NBA就已经被充分讨论过。大多数球队已经不再选择中投而是鼓励球员更多地去投三分，在三分线内出手的远距离中投（长2分）实际上是篮球场上最不明智的得分方式。NBA投篮选择方式的调整和改变是非常明显的，本赛季三分球占NBA全部投篮出手的35%，这个数字每年都在迅速增长，大概二十年前，这个数字甚至不到20%，而那时的NBA中投占全部出手的35%，现在这个数字大约是20%，20年间，三分球和中投在NBA的位置已经发生了转换。
本篇文章的目的是分析这种趋势是如何影响中国篮球的。
纵观CBA 2019-20赛季，我们将投篮方式分为三种——篮下、中投和三分。其中，篮下出手无疑是效率最高的，联盟共有33986次篮下出手，20237次命中，命中率高达60%，达到1.19PPP（平均每回合得分），如果把造犯规得分也考虑进来的话，篮下进攻的价值会更高；联盟共有26479次三分球出手，其中9278次投进，命中率达35%（1.05PPP），三分球的分值最后的PPP值相比中投和篮下是更高的，而山东和福建的三分命中率是高于中投的；最后我们来看中投，联盟共有15555次中投出手，其中5967次命中，命中率为38%，仅有0.77PPP，这也就说明中投是截至目前篮球场上最差的出手选择。也许CBA的中投命中率仅为38%会让很多球迷感到惊讶，但同比NBA的中投命中率也仅有41%。
我们必须要提及的一点就是NBA球队防守策略已经转向了允许对手投空位中投，再加上NBA有着全世界最高水平的球员，NBA中投命中率只比CBA高3%其实是非常合理的。我们可以看到在篮下进攻方面CBA的数据实际上要高于NBA，这并不是因为在篮下CBA有着终结能力更强的球员，而是因为CBA球员护筐能力普遍不足。在三分球方面，NBA与CBA的命中率接近，但NBA的三分线距离更远以及更好的外线防守，这也相应地增加了三分球命中难度。此外，我们还可以看出中投只占CBA全部投篮出手的20%，甚至比NBA的21%还要低，这说明CBA在某种意义上已经跟上了世界篮球的脚步。造成这样的结果可能是因为教练和球员的出手选择更明智，但更大的原因是CBA缺少好的护筐球员。
进一步的讨论
中投在CBA中的比例变少，球员更多地选择三分和攻击篮下，这是正面积极的发展方向，但CBA防守不足的问题也需要我们认真思考。CBA被很多人看作是一个以进攻为主的联赛，因为运动能力、速度、臂展这三个好的防守必要条件在CBA中是非常缺乏的，在防守不足、缺少好的护筐球员的前提下，攻击篮筐在CBA是非常容易的。在调查研究中我们发现联盟中没有任何一支球队有明确的不允许中投规则。NBA还有“防守三秒”这个规则，这也增加了护筐的难度，但由于NBA球员在运动能力方面的出众天赋，他们在护筐方面的表现还是把CBA球员远远地甩在了身后。这也再次证明了护筐的重要性（关于护筐的更多内容请点击查看何为“护筐”？），护筐不仅可以更多地造对手在篮下投失，也会迫使对手更多地选择中投。在进攻时间快结束的时候选择中投是唯一可以接受的情况，因为进攻时间所剩越少，进攻的效率会越低，在进攻时间内出手起码还有投进的可能，而24秒违例是最差的结果，算是失误的一种。
接下来我们一起来看看在CBA2019-20赛季中那些中投出手超过100次的球员，即使有些球员中投次数非常多，并且之前被普遍认为是好的中距离投手，但他们作为投手实际上是被高估的，因为任何一名球员攻击篮下的效率都是高于其中投效率的，并且大部分有三分投射能力的球员三分效率也高于中投。
CBA最好的中距离投手是胡金秋，这主要是因为他的中投大部分情况是空位接球投篮。他的中投效率的确相当不错，但中国有很多更好的投手中投命中率却很差，这其实是受他们中投出手选择难度的影响，很多都是高难度出手。 接下来我们来看看中国最顶尖的球员易建联，易建联的中投是非常不错的，但其得分效率仍远远低于他的篮下进攻和三分。易建联的中投命中率为41%，仅比他的三分命中率40%高出一个百分点，但由于三分球比中投多一分，他三分球平均每回合得分达到了1.19PPP，中投仅为0.81PPP，这个差别是相当巨大的。这也是NBA中大个球员选择三分而不是中投出手的原因，得分效率会更高，你所在的队伍也就更有机会赢得比赛。
我们可以看出反而大个球员的中投命中率是最高的，这是因为大个球员的中投大部分情况是较容易的接球投篮，而后卫的中投却是更高难度的运球后急停跳投。周琦算是一个例外，因为他不管在哪个位置都不算是一个好的投手，所以他应该继续坚持选择篮下终结，他的篮下进攻命中率高达70%，中投命中率为33%，三分命中率为31%。
方硕尽管被球迷们看作是一名好的投手，但实际上他的进攻效率很低，这是因为他的出手选择不够好，很多运球之后的中投是在失去平衡情况下出手的，命中率只有34%，这低于他36%的三分命中率。我们也建议方硕可以更多的选择三分而不是中投，这样他会为球队赢得比赛做出更大的贡献。他在进攻端效率有很大的提升空间，这也是他没有能够入选CBA TOP50球员名单的原因。值得一提的是，孙悦为CBA中投出手100次以上球员中命中率最低的。
由于没有CBA 90年代的数据，我们收集了NBA所能获取到最早的投篮数据，把1996-97赛季的明星球员与现今NBA的明星球员做了比较。我们可以很明显地看出现今的NBA球员中投出手减少很多，同时增加了很多的三分出手。出手选择的变化大大提升了进攻效率。史上最伟大的球员乔丹有71%的出手是中投，命中率为49%，其中包括了后仰跳投和其它高难度出手。即便是乔丹这样中投大师级别的球员，中投平均每回合得分（0.99PPP）仍没有他篮下和三分的平均每回合得分高（均为1.02PPP）。必须注意的是，当时没有“防守三秒”这一规则（从2001-02赛季开始施行），并且当时在篮下终结的难度要远远高于现在，因此当时的球员往往不得不选择中投。
NBA在不断发展中已经进入了数据分析时代，现今NBA球队相信统计学，相信数据体现出的赢球方法。有些球队会做到极致的程度，比如休斯顿火箭队，全队的中投仅仅占10%，其明星球员哈登的中投出手只有5%，通常是在进攻时间快要结束时的出手。这一结果很明显是由于他们的前任总经理莫雷驱使的，他也交易走了卡佩拉，以形成他们的小球阵容。我们之后也会看到，随着篮球趋势的变化，会有新的规则产生，那些取得胜利的球队是因为选择了能够赢球的打法。而有一点是无可争议的，那就是无论在NBA还是CBA联赛中，中投都是最差的投篮选择。未来我们也会继续研究在中国各个级别的联赛（CUBA、全国高中联赛、甚至是野球比赛）中，这一结论是否依然成立。
总而言之，尽管有一些球员具有不错的中投能力，但中投在普遍意义上是篮球比赛中效率最差的出手选择。尤其在CBA联赛中，由于整体防守相对薄弱、护筐不足，教练和球员们更应该优先考虑进攻篮下或者寻求三分出手。