Michael Ou - Rookie Watch
Today we will talk about the first overall pick of this years CBA draft Micheal Ou. He was a backup player in a small school playing in NCAA D1 Cal State Northridge. He ended up only staying 2 years before deciding to play professionally back in China he only avenged under 10 minutes per game and was used mainly as an energy big off the bench. With very limited skill set and no shooting ability his role was mainly as a rebounder, screener and finisher at the rim.
That is also exactly what he will be moving forward in the CBA. Although listed at 2.10, he is a bit shorter but with a great wingspan and explosiveness and has adequate size. He lacks strength and physicality to match up with bigger stronger opponents right now. Offensively his role is strictly limited to setting screens, finishing at the rim, and grabbing offensive rebounds. While Defensively he is a post defender who will have to defend the pick and roll as well as protect the rim, but is incapable of guarding the perimeter or quicker perimeter players.
Although with limited sample size his offensive rebounding percentages at a lower NCAA level was at 4.8% in his first season and 11.6% last season. Even though he played in a small school at a lower level at the NCAA level we expect rebounding to be easier or equal in the CBA, which is evident as he is currently at 11.2% Offensive Rebounding percentage after 9 games and just over 100 minutes played so far. In his limited role and minutes he is doing exactly what he is capable of and we expect him to stay around 10% ORB% for the rest of the season, which is relatively good for a local player. He will also provide finishing at the rim and overall hustle sprinting back on defense and covering good ground defensively.
However the most important skill as a big man is rim protection and so far this season he’s failed in that department allowing 23/34 shots at the rim while fouling 11 times resulting in 1.83 PPP, something we will need to keep track of and see if it improves as the season goes on, but in his NCAA career over two seasons he gave up 63/114 (55%) shots at the rim while fouling 24 times resulting in 1.42 PPP, so looking at these patterns we predict he is not a good rim protector as he lacks timing, quickness, and size. Although we do see him show decent quickness staying in front of defenders in the pick and roll, he lacks the physicality and gets bumped back too easily losing position. We also see him committing too early as a help defender at times and losing position early instead of staying active and knowing where cutters are.
Offensively we don’t expect him to bring more than just finishing at the rim (above 54% career in NCAA and CBA) as he does not have the skill set or shooting ability to provide any more value on offense. We can see that he struggles to finish against more athletic rim protectors and has trouble being physical as he gets bumped off balance easily.
Overall Micheal Ou will be a serviceable backup screen and roll big in the CBA for many years. It may be argued that for the number one pick in the draft getting a career best backup big isn’t enough, but the CBA draft is still not mature to where starting level or top players like Jiang Yuxing will be available every year. At the age of 21 there is room for improvement and development but we don’t see him drastically improving offensively due to lack of skillset and shooting ability, and would only see small improvements defensively and finishing at the rim but overall is and will only be an average player in the CBA.
数据解析状元秀区俊炫的优缺点
今天我们来讨论一下CBA选秀状元区俊炫，之前他在NCAA一级联赛中为加州大学北岭分校这所名气并不大的学校效力。在选择加入CBA之前，他只在NCAA打了两年，作为大个替补球员他平均每场比赛上场时间不足十分钟。由于技术能力有限，也不具备投射能力，他当时的角色主要就是抢篮板、掩护和篮下终结。
在进入职业联赛之后，他也应该扮演同NCCA一样的角色。虽然他的身高并没有达到官方报名身高2米10，但他的臂展和爆发力都非常好，身材比例也相对不错。但目前来看，如果他遭遇更高更壮的对手，他的力量和身体都还不足以与之抗衡。他在进攻端的能力很局限，就是掩护、篮下终结及抢进攻篮板。在防守端他是一名低位防守球员，需要防挡拆和护筐，但他不能换防外线或是速度更快的球员。
区俊炫之前的数据样本比较有限，他在NCAA中的进攻篮板率第一年是4.8%，第二年为11.6%。虽然他在一所非篮球名校且分区联盟实力较弱，但在CBA抢篮板的难度应该更小或者与之持平，从数据上看目前他在CBA打了9场比赛，上场时间仅仅100分钟，但他的进攻篮板率达到了11.2%。在有限的上场时间中，区俊炫可谓竭尽所能，我们预测本赛季剩余比赛中他的进攻篮板率会保持在10%左右，这个数据对于中国本土球员来说相对不错。他也会在篮下终结、快速退防，良好的防守为球队做出贡献。
作为内线球员最重要的技能之一就是护筐，但截至目前，区俊炫本赛季在护筐方面做得并不好，对手面对他出手34次，其中被打进23次，犯规11次，被对手平均每回合得分为1.47 PPP，当然我们还需继续关注他在护筐方面的数据，看是否会随着赛程推进而提高。但在之前NCAA比赛生涯中，对手面对他出手114次，被打进63次，被打进命中率为55%，同时犯规24次，被对手平均每回合得分为1.22 PPP。根据数据来看，我们预测他并不是一位好的护筐球员，在时机判断、速度和身材方面都有所不足。尽管我们观察到在挡拆时，他显示出不错的速度能够始终保持在进攻球员身前，但他还是不够强硬，会被对手很轻松地撞开而失位。同时我们还注意到他总是过早的参与协防，造成失位，不懂得如何聪明的观察和察觉空切球员的位置。
区俊炫的进攻方式应该会局限于篮下终结（在NCAA和CBA的篮下命中率均超过54%），因为他不具备其他技术和投射能力。我们可以看出他在面对身体素质更好的护筐球员时，他的篮下进攻表现很挣扎，在内线遭到身体对抗时，也很容易身体失去平衡。
总的来说，区俊炫在CBA会是一名角色轮换球员，也会是一名合格的掩护内线球员。也许有人认为CBA选秀的第一顺位在CBA的角色不应该仅仅如此，但由于现在CBA选秀还不够成熟，像姜宇星这种第一年就作为首发球员、甚至已经成为顶级球员的新秀并不是每年都有。区俊炫只有21岁，还有提升的空间和进步的可能，但由于缺少足够的内线技巧和投射能力，恐怕在进攻端他的产出不会有太大进步。他在防守端和篮下终结方面会有一定的提高，我们认为欧俊炫职业生涯的上限不会太高，不会超过联盟平均水准。